NFL Week 17 – As we enter the final two weeks of the season, the playoff picture is in a sort of halfway state between clarity and massive chaos.
On the side of clarity, we know nine playoff teams already — the Bills, Chiefs, Bengals, Ravens and Chargers have all clinched spots in the AFC, while the Vikings, 49ers, Eagles and Cowboys are going in the NFC. While no individual seed has been locked up yet, it would take minor miracles to avoid, say, Philadelphia winning the bye week, or Dallas travelling to the NFC South winner in the wildcard round. You can make a decent guess today just who will be going where in two weeks, at least at the top of the standings.
On the side of chaos, only eight teams have officially been eliminated from the postseason. That leaves 15 teams currently not in the playoffs but eligible to be, fighting over just five remaining slots. And most of those aren’t crazy long-shot hopes, either — a dozen teams have legitimate paths to the postseason without requiring huge upsets or massive amounts of results to go their way. If you like teams still having hope this late into the year, thank the seventh seed — the expanded playoffs are keeping the realistic hopes of the Lions, Packers, Seahawks, Patriots and Jets alive into the new year.
It’s moving week in the NFL, with clinching and elimination scenarios abounding. It’s time for teams to jockey for position, giving them a chance at extending their season next week. Who will get 2023 off on the right foot, and who will faceplant? Because we’re live, you can participate in the discussion as well! Join in on the conversation — either in the comment section in this article, on Twitter by tagging @FBOutsiders or @BryKno, or on our brand new Discord server, where some of your favorite writers will be hanging out and reacting live. Questions, comments, and particularly clever quips will find their way into the liveblog proper as we have a running conversation throughout gameday.
While no game this Sunday features two teams with winning records, there are a lot of matchups that matter. Only one game is irrelevant for playoff positioning, which is rare for this late in the season. Our full schedule includes:
Early Window
- Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) @ Houston Texans
- Denver Broncos (+12.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs
- Arizona Cardinals (+6) @ Atlanta Falcons
- Chicago Bears (+6) @ Detroit Lions
- Miami Dolphins (+2.5) @ New England Patriots
- Indianapolis Colts (+5.5) @ New York Giants
- New Orleans Saints (+5.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles
- Carolina Panthers (+3.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Cleveland Browns (+2) @ Washington Commanders
Late Window
- San Francisco 49ers (-10) @ Las Vegas Raiders
- New York Jets (-1.5) @ Seattle Seahawks
- Minnesota Vikings (+3) @ Green Bay Packers
- Los Angeles Rams (+6.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers
The nightcap is the Pittsburgh Steelers at the Baltimore Ravens, which was an odd choice to flex to Sunday Night. Better than the Rams-Chargers game that was there before, but there were probably better options. Either way, we’ll hand things over to the FO Discord server for that one. But until then, let the games begin!
Saturday Night: Early Window Storylines
It’s a rather back-loaded window this week, but that’s not to say there’s nothing of interest in the early window of games. Take the Dolphins-Patriots matchup, for instance — an elimination game for New England, and very nearly a clinching game for Miami (they’d need a Jets loss as well to fully punch their ticket). Neither team is coming in at exactly full strength, either. Tua Tagovailoa is once again in concussion protocol, meaning Teddy Bridgewater will take over and hopefully not be injured on the first drive this time around. He’ll be going against a Patriots secondary that is basically down to picking lucky fans in the stands to play cornerback at this point. Turnovers doomed the Patriots in their first matchup — an interception and two fumbles, one returned for a score, helped throttle the New England offense and was the first cloud of smoke over their 2022 season. They’ll have to move the ball better than that if they want to be relevant next week.
The Commanders are in an interesting spot — they’re the only team that can either clinch or be eliminated this week, though the smart money has neither happening on Sunday. They are currently sitting in the seventh seed, but they’re just a half-game up on the Seahawks, Lions and Packers, at least one of whom will get to eight wins. That means Washington needs at least one more win to get into the playoffs, and with the Cowboys coming to town for the season finale, beating the already-eliminated Browns seems beyond crucial. So it’s a good thing they’re turning to — let me check my notes here — Carson Wentz? Oh geez, that doesn’t bode well at all.
Elsewhere, the Eagles can clinch the NFC’s bye week if they take down the Saints; Jacksonville looks for wild card insurance as they take on the Texans; new Broncos head coach Jerry Rosburg faces trial by fire against the Chiefs; the Buccaneers look to clinch the NFC South by beating the Panthers; the Lions fight to stay relevant against the not-relevant Bears; the Giants look to clinch a playoff berth by beating the Colts, and the Falcons and Cardinals play out their string.
Saturday Night: Playoffs?!
Maybe you’re a fan of one of the eight eliminated teams. Or maybe you are, like a true connoisseur, attracted to chaos, confusion and uncertainty. For fans of that nature, we’ve worked out the results that will lead to the most exciting Week 18, with as much on the line as physically possible. We got off to a good start on Thursday, with the Cowboys beating the Titans, leaving Dallas alive in both the NFC East and bye week races. With that in mind, we add…
Saints d. Eagles and 49ers d. Raiders
This keeps three teams alive for the top seed in the NFC. The Eagles would still clinch with a win, but a loss in Week 18would open up the door — the 49ers would then be able to clinch the bye week with a win, and the Cowboys would be able to take the NFC East win a win of their own (and pass the 49ers if they should slip up, as well). This does sadly eliminate the Raiders, but their chances were long enough anyway that we can afford to lose them. The Saints win also would keep them alive for their division, assuming…
Panthers d. Buccaneers
Tampa Bay clinches the NFC South with a win this week, so of course we do not want that. With the Panthers and Saints both winning, Carolina would clinch the division with a Week 18 win; Tampa Bay would clinch it if they won and Carolina lost, and New Orleans would squeak in if both Carolina and Tampa fell.
There are now 16 results left in the NFC South race (ignoring ties).
The #Buccaneers win 10, and can clinch the division with a win next week.
The #Panthers win 5
The #Saints win just the one –but they’re not dead yet! pic.twitter.com/f80OxjOHGX— Bryan Knowles (@BryKno) December 26, 2022
Colts d. Giants, Commanders d. Browns, Lions d. Bears and Packers d. Vikings
This creates the most chaos in the NFC wildcard race — the Giants and Commanders at 8.5 wins, and the Lions and Packers at 8 wins each. The winner of Green Bay-Detroit in Week 18 would be at nine wins then, needing just one of the Giants or Commanders to fall to tougher NFC East competition. That makes it essentially a playoff game, and nearly guaranteed to be flexed out to next Saturday. Good times, that. The Seahawks could also be in contention here, but we’ll sadly eliminate them so we can have…
Jets d. Seahawks and Patriots d. Dolphins (and maybe Steelers d. Ravens and Jaguars d. Texans)
The Jets and Patriots winning would put second-place in the AFC East as a three-way tie at 8-8. The Jets and Dolphins play each other in Week 18 so one of them will (presumably) have nine wins, but the Patriots would have the tiebreaker over both if they could knock off the Bills. The Steelers and Jaguars winning would also put them at eight wins a piece, but the Steelers would need a Dolphins-Jets tie to get the #7 seed in this scenario, while the Jaguars would need the Jets to lose to stay in wildcard contention. Either way, they’re solid backup options for chaos should the AFC East not live up to form. Of course, the Ravens losing would hurt their seeding hopes, so we also want…
Bills d. Bengals, Chiefs d. Broncos and Chargers d. Rams
This eliminates the Bengals from the bye week race, but keeps that unclaimed with the Bills and Chiefs tied at 13 wins apiece. It also means the Bengals-Ravens game in Week 18 is for the AFC North title, and means the Chargers could steal the fifth seed away from Cincinnati if they win and the Bengals lose. Los Angeles would be able to guarantee a matchup against the Titans-Jaguars winner if they beat the Broncos, while the Ravens and Bengals would be playing for home field advantage in a wildcard round rematch. Fun!
The AFC North is down to eight scenarios (ignoring ties) — five for the #Bengals, three for the #Ravens.
Week 18 is for the title, unless the Ravens lose to the Steelers AND the Bengals beat the Bills next week. pic.twitter.com/E9mvMVhyx7
— Bryan Knowles (@BryKno) December 24, 2022
That just leaves the Cardinals-Falcons game, which…you know? Let your heart take you where it may for that one.
Clinching Scenarios
- Philadelphia can clinch the bye week with a win
- N.Y. Giants can clinch the #6 Seed with a win, or losses by the Commanders, Lions, Packers and Seahawks
- N.Y. Giants can clinch a playoff berth with a win, or losses by the Commanders and Seahawks, or one of those two and both the Packers and Lions.
- Washington can clinch a playoff berth with a win and losses by the Lions, Packers and Seahawks
- Minnesota can clinch a top-two seed with a win and a 49ers loss
- Tampa Bay can clinch the NFC South (and the #4 seed) with a win
- Buffalo can clinch the bye week with a win and a Chiefs loss
- Buffalo can clinch a top-two seed with a win
- Miami can clinch a playoff berth with a win and a Jets loss
- Kansas City can clinch a top-two seed with a win and a Bengals loss
- L.A. Chargers can clinch a top-six seed with a win or a Dolphins loss
- Cincinnati can clinch the AFC North (and a top-three seed) with a win and a Ravens loss
- Cincinnati can clinch a top-five seed with a win or a Chargers loss
- Baltimore can clinch a top-five seed with a win and a Chargers loss
- Baltimore can clinch a top-six seed with a win or a Dolphins loss
Elimination Scenarios
- Dallas can be locked into the #5 Seed if the Eagles win
- Washington can be eliminated from the #6 Seed with a loss or a Giants win
- Washington can be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss and wins by the Packers and Lions
- Minnesota can be eliminated from the bye week with a loss or an Eagles win
- Detroit can be eliminated from the #6 Seed with a loss or a Giants win
- Detroit can be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss and a Commanders win
- Green Bay can be eliminated from the #6 Seed with a loss or a Giants win
- Green Bay can be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss and either a Lions or Commanders win.
- San Francisco can be eliminated from the bye week with a loss or an Eagles win
- San Francisco can be eliminated from a top-two seed with a loss and a Vikings win
- Seattle can be eliminated from the #6 Seed with a loss or a Giants win
- Seattle can be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss and either a Commanders win or wins by both the Lions and Packers
- Carolina can be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss
- New Orleans can be eliminated from the NFC South with a loss or a Buccaneers win
- New Orleans can be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss, or a Buccaneers win and either a Commanders win or wins by both the Lions and Packers
- Miami can be eliminated from the #5 Seed with a loss or a Baltimore win
- Miami can be eliminated from a top-six seed with a loss
- New England can be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss
- N.Y. Jets can be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss
- Kansas City can be eliminated from the bye week with a loss and a Buffalo win
- L.A. Chargers can be eliminated from the #5 Seed with a loss and a Ravens win
- Las Vegas can be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss, or a win by either the Jets or Dolphins
- Cincinnati can be eliminated from the bye week with a loss
- Cincinnati can be eliminated from a top-two seed with a loss and a Chiefs win
- Baltimore can be eliminated from the #2 Seed with a loss or a Chiefs win
- Baltimore can be eliminated from the AFC North with a loss and a Bengals win
- Pittsburgh can be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss or a Dolphins win
Good luck to everyone!
#Sunday #NFL #Liveblog #Packers #Fight #Vikings #Stay #Alive
